Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
