A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
